MacroRisk Sentinel

MacroRisk SentinelFree Beta

U.S. macro risk dashboard for long-term investors, built around 6 core indicators and additional signals that provide broader context.

Data updated: Oct 12, 2026

Yield Curve (10Y-2Y)

as of Oct 9, 2026
Elevated
0.44

CAPE / Shiller PE

as of Oct 9, 2026
High
41.18est.

VIX (Volatility Index)

as of Oct 8, 2026
Low
15.41

Unemployment Rate

as of Sep 1, 2026
Elevated
4.20

Recession Probability (FRED)

as of Aug 1, 2026
Low
0.62

Corporate Bond Spread (BAA–10Y)

as of Oct 8, 2026
Low
1.48

Buffett Indicator

as of Sep 17, 2026
High
234.4%

Federal Debt to GDP

as of Jan 1, 2026
Elevated
122.59

Industrial Production (INDPRO)

as of Aug 1, 2026
Low
103.07

Interpretive context tool: Crisis Similarity compares current conditions against fixed historical reference episodes using normalized indicator levels and recent changes. Higher similarity indicates closer resemblance to a historical stress pattern. This is a pattern-comparison tool, not a crisis probability forecast, and requires sufficient indicator coverage to be interpretive.

5/6 indicators available — some indicator data is unavailable, stale, or could not be computed. Similarity results are based on partial coverage and should be interpreted with additional caution.

#1

COVID-19

2020-02-015/6 (Partial)
47%
#2

Regional Bank Stress

2023-03-105/6 (Partial)
33%
#3

Inflation/Rate-Hike

2022-03-165/6 (Partial)
32%
#4

Global Financial Crisis

2007-12-015/6 (Partial)
16%
#5

Dotcom / 2001 Recession

2001-03-015/6 (Partial)
<1%

BTC Cycle Outlook

Modelled Bitcoin cycle ranges and timing

Data as of Oct 11, 2026

CURRENT OUTLOOK

The latest model BTC price is above the modelled low range, with the possible low window set for Oct 5 – Nov 16, 2026. The possible top remains provisional.

Possible Cycle Low

Modelled range

$31.9k – $60.4k

P20–P80

Central estimate

$43.8k

P50

Timing

Oct 5 – Nov 16, 2026

Evidence strength

MODERATE

Status

Active

Possible Cycle Top

Provisional modelled range

$162.6k – $357.1k

P20–P80

Central estimate

$267.9k

P50

Timing

Sep 11 – Oct 2, 2029

Evidence strength

LOW

Status

Provisional

Provisional — full top-cycle evidence becomes available only after the next halving.

P20–P80 = modelled range Evidence Strength = quality of supporting evidence, not probability

WHERE ARE WE IN THE CYCLE?

LAST COMPLETED TOP

Oct 6, 2025

POSSIBLE LOW WINDOW

Oct 5 – Nov 16, 2026

TODAY

Oct 2026

NEXT HALVING

~Apr 2028

Estimated

PROVISIONAL TOP WINDOW

Sep 11 – Oct 2, 2029

HOW FAR IS BTC FROM THE MODELLED RANGES?

POSSIBLE LOW

BTC would need to fall 27.8%

to enter the modelled low range.

Latest model BTC price: $83.6k
Modelled range: $31.9k–$60.4k

POSSIBLE TOP

BTC would need to rise 94.4%

to enter the provisional top range.

Latest model BTC price: $83.6k
Modelled range: $162.6k–$357.1k

Distance from the latest model BTC price to the nearest P20–P80 range edge.

MSTR Cycle Outlook

Scenario ranges for MSTR Conservative Backing across the BTC cycle.

Confidence · Low

Using last valid mapping — current Strategy corporate inputs are temporarily degraded. (mapping calculated Oct 12, 2026, 8:16 AM)

Cycle Low Scenario

Conservative Backing Range

$24.93 – $78.43

Central Backing Estimate $47.37

BTC Scenario: $31.9k – $60.4k

Mapping Window: Oct 5, 2026 – Nov 16, 2026

Cycle Top Scenario

Conservative Backing Range

$270.33 – $635.46

Central Backing Estimate $468.11

BTC Scenario: $162.6k – $357.1k

Mapping Window: Sep 11, 2029 – Oct 2, 2029

BTC Options Positioning

Major Deribit BTC-settled options positioning and max-pain context.

Snapshot Oct 12, 2026 · 14:13 UTC

Max Pain

$78,000

Oct 30, 2026 · 18 days

Distance from Spot

5.62% below

Spot $82,647

Open Notional

$11.74B

Selected expiry

Max pain reflects current options positioning, not a BTC price target.

Cycle Outlook: this expiry overlaps the current LOW reference window · informational only.

Source: public Deribit BTC-settled options data · other option products and venues excluded.

BTC Realized Valuation

Realized value and on-chain context

BTC price as of Oct 12, 2:00 PM · Realized data as of Oct 11

+54%

above realized price

MVRV 1.54x

Valuation

Typical Valuation Range
BTC Price$82,646.97
Realized Price$53,839.13

BTC Context

Historical Stretch

ModestMVRV Z 0.97
0257+

Compared with BTC's full history · not a cycle-top signal

Value of Newly Mined BTC

+15%

vs 1Y average

Issuance multiple 1.15x

USD value of new BTC supply

What This Means

BTC trades 54% above realized price; valuation status: Typical Valuation Range.

Historical stretch remains modest (MVRV Z 0.97).

The USD value of newly mined BTC is 15% above its 1-year average.

MSTR Conservative Backing Premium

Where MSTR trades versus Conservative Backing

MSTR price as of Oct 12, 2:10 PM · BTC as of Oct 12, 2:00 PM

Source delayed

+31%

vs Conservative Backing

Backing Multiple: 1.31x

Valuation

Moderate Premium
MSTR Price$157.98
Conservative Backing / Share$120.23

Structure

BTC / Diluted Share0.001877
BTC Holdings848,000 BTC
Diluted Shares~451.7M
Senior Claims Burden~$18.6k / BTC

What This Means

MSTR trades 31% above Conservative Backing per share (1.31x) and remains in the Moderate Premium band.

Strategy holds about 0.001877 BTC per assumed diluted share.

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